Key Ratios
P/E (TTM)
52.4x
Premium vs Linde India 105x; rich but growth-justified
EV/EBITDA
40.8x
High; reflects export moat + clean energy optionality
Price/Book
13.5x
Asset-light cryogenic IP commands premium
Price/Sales
9.1x
High; sector norm for specialty mfg globally
ROCE (FY25)
33.5%
Well above cost of capital; excellent capital efficiency
ROE (FY25)
25.9%
Consistent above 25% for 4 years
D/E Ratio
0.05x
Virtually debt-free; net cash positive
Div. Yield
0.15%
Growth reinvestment priority; low payout
Key Performance Indicators
TTM Revenue
₹1,484Cr
FY25: ₹1,306Cr
+18.6% CAGR (3Y)
TTM Net Profit
₹244Cr
FY25: ₹226Cr
+20.1% CAGR (3Y)
Revenue CAGR
18.6%
3Y | 5Y: 15.0%
Above sector average
PAT CAGR (3Y)
20.1%
FY22→FY25
Accelerating profitability
Promoter Holding
75.00%
Stable since IPO Dec 2023
No pledge reported
FCF Yield
~0.5%
FY25 FCF: ~₹-7Cr (capex cycle)
Capex-heavy FY25; normalizing
Business Snapshot

INOX India (INOXCVA) is India's largest manufacturer of cryogenic storage, transport, and regasification systems, serving industrial gas producers, LNG infrastructure developers, and scientific research facilities across 100+ countries. The company sits at the manufacturing layer of the clean energy value chain — supplying the specialized vessels, tankers, and distribution systems that make gaseous fuels liquid and movable. Its defining competitive fact: INOX is one of fewer than 10 companies globally certified to manufacture the full range of cryogenic equipment (from 100L lab flasks to 15,000m³ LNG terminals), making it a rare single-source supplier for complex projects like ITER, ISRO, and Bahamas LNG.

Technical Snapshot
Current Price₹1,305
52-Week High₹2,035 (Apr 2025)
52-Week Low₹850 (Nov 2024)
From 52W High-36%
30W EMA PositionAbove (recovering)
RSI-14 (approx)~48 (Neutral)
Support₹1,150 / ₹1,050
Resistance₹1,450 / ₹1,600
[Analyst inference — technical levels approximate]
Screener Pros & Cons
✅ Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of ~35%
✅ Company is virtually debt-free
✅ Company has a good return on equity of 25.9% for FY25
✅ Strong order book visibility at ₹1,457 Cr (1.1x revenue)
✅ Stock is trading at 36% below 52W high — potential re-entry
⚠️ Working capital intensive: inventory days ~138 days
⚠️ Stock P/E of 52x is expensive vs earnings growth trajectory
⚠️ FCF turned negative in FY25 due to capex cycle at Savli
⚠️ Promoter inheritance complexity (Devendra Kumar Jain estate)
🎯 Single Deciding Factor
An investor must believe that INOX India will capture 3–5% of the global small-scale LNG and liquid hydrogen infrastructure market over the next decade — if that thesis holds, the current valuation at ₹1,305 offers a 2–3x return; if the global clean energy capex cycle disappoints or Chinese competition intensifies in export markets, the stock is expensive at 52x earnings.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This dashboard is prepared for personal research purposes only. The author is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst under the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors must conduct their own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decision. The data and analysis herein may contain errors or omissions and are subject to change without notice.
ACCUMULATE
On a 3-year view with SIP-style accumulation below ₹1,200; current price implies full near-term value but the optionality in LNG, hydrogen, and beverage kegs is not priced in the base case.
Investment Thesis

INOX India is a rare Indian engineering compounder — a company with 30+ years of cryogenic expertise, operating in markets with high regulatory barriers, long customer relationships, and secular tailwinds from the global energy transition. The core thesis rests on three pillars: (1) Industrial gas segment provides a predictable, recurring base with 60–70% domestic market share; (2) LNG and hydrogen infrastructure represents a decade-long capex super-cycle as the world replaces diesel with gas; and (3) Cryo-scientific projects (ITER, ISRO, CERN) are lumpy but high-margin, demonstrating the company's elite engineering credentials. What must you believe? That INOX's export revenues continue growing at 20%+ annually as it displaces European and Chinese vendors in small-scale LNG and specialty gas tanks. The key risk: if global LNG capex slows (e.g., due to cheap renewables making LNG uncompetitive by 2030), the 40x EV/EBITDA valuation will compress significantly.

5 Bull Case Reasons
1.
Global LNG Infrastructure Boom — INOX is Perfectly Positioned

Shell projects LNG demand rising ~60% by 2040. Small-scale LNG — INOX's sweet spot — is a $10Bn market growing to $16Bn by 2028. INOX has already won the Bahamas mini-LNG terminal (₹200Cr+), Antigua, Scotland, and US space company orders. Its IATF 16949 certification for LNG fuel tanks (first Indian company) creates an unmatched competitive position with OEMs. [IP Q3FY26] [Rating]

Pushback: European competition from Chart Industries and Cryolor remains intense; winning LNG terminal orders at scale requires project management capabilities still being built.
2.
Cryo-Scientific Franchise — Only Indian Supplier to ITER, ISRO, CERN

INOX has delivered 4km of complex jacketed piping to ITER, manufactured ISRO's second launch pad cryogenic systems, and supplied CERN. The ITER Cryostat Thermal Shield repair order (₹145Cr, FY25) validates INOX as an irreplaceable partner. As fusion energy accelerates globally (40+ startups, $7Bn+ funding), INOX has first-mover advantages in fusion cryogenic infrastructure. India is planning its own DEMO reactor by the 2040s. [IP Q3FY26] [Concall Q3FY26]

Pushback: Cryo-scientific orders are lumpy and one-time; the ITER project is behind schedule; fusion commercialization is decades away and its cryogenic requirements may differ from INOX's current offerings.
3.
Beverage Keg Division — An Underappreciated Recurring Revenue Engine

The Savli plant (300,000 keg/year capacity) generated ₹200Cr in FY25 with only ~50,000 units produced — implying 6x capacity utilization headroom. Heineken, AB InBev approvals secured; Carlsberg audit pending. FSSC 22000 certified (first in Asia for kegs). Target: ₹300–350Cr FY26 with significantly better margins as fixed costs amortize over higher volumes. This segment alone could contribute ₹500–600Cr revenue by FY28E. [Concall Q3FY26] [IP Q3FY26]

Pushback: Stainless steel keg manufacturing is not INOX's core competency; competition from European manufacturers with decades of brand relationships may limit pricing power.
4.
Export Revenue Compounding — From 50% to 65%+ Potential

Exports have grown from 50% (FY24) to 62% (Q3FY26) of revenue. INOX has won orders from US space companies (1,000m³ and 1,500m³ tanks), Heineken (Netherlands), Molson Coors (USA), European universities, and ITER (France). Anti-dumping duties on Chinese cryogenic products in the US and EU are creating unexpected tailwinds. INOX's cost-competitive Indian manufacturing base, combined with global quality certifications, creates a structural advantage vs Western incumbents. [IP Q3FY26] [Rating Ind-Ra]

Pushback: A strong Indian rupee could compress export margins; geopolitical risks (US tariffs, EU protectionism) could emerge; the US arbitration loss (₹8.5Cr one-time) signals execution risks in overseas contracts.
5.
Robust Financial Architecture — Reinvesting into Growth, Not Financial Engineering

INOX is debt-free (D/E: 0.05x), has ₹160Cr+ free cash on balance sheet (Dec 2025), and has funded the ₹100Cr+ Savli expansion entirely from internal accruals. ROCE has sustained 30–40% for 6+ years, indicating genuine value creation. The company is reinvesting in growth (new capacity, new products) rather than financial engineering. India Ratings upgraded outlook to Positive in Sep 2025. [Rating Ind-Ra 2025] [IP Q3FY26]

Pushback: FY25 FCF turned slightly negative as capex accelerated; working capital intensity is rising (receivable days up to 70, inventory days 138) as order book mixes toward longer-cycle projects.
Peer Valuation Table
CompanyRev CAGR 3YOPM%ROCE%P/EEV/EBITDAVerdict vs INOX
INOX India [Subject]18.6%21.8%33.5%52.4x40.8xBenchmark
Linde India [Screener]~12%~26%16.9%105x~55xPremium (justify?)
Chart Industries (US) [Analyst inf.]~18%~18%~12%~35x~20xDiscount (India prem.)
Cryogenic Peers (Europe) [Analyst inf.]~8-12%~15-18%~10-15%~20-30x~12-18xSignificant Discount
MTAR Technologies [Analyst inf.]~25%~18%~15%~80x~50xPremium (lower ROCE)
[Note: INOX's ROCE of 33.5% is significantly superior to all listed peers, partially justifying its premium. However, at 52x P/E, the stock prices in 20%+ earnings growth for 5+ years.] [Analyst inference]
3-Year Forward Scenario Analysis [Analyst estimates — not investment advice]
🚀 Bull Case
Rev CAGR: 25% (FY25→FY28E)
OPM%: 24–25% (Bahamas, kegs scale)
PAT FY28E: ~₹520Cr
P/E multiple applied: 45x
Assumes: LNG backlog converts, keg division scales to ₹500Cr, hydrogen optionality materializes
₹2,570
+97% from ₹1,305
📊 Base Case
Rev CAGR: 18% (FY25→FY28E)
OPM%: 21–22% (stable)
PAT FY28E: ~₹380Cr
P/E multiple applied: 40x
Assumes: Consistent execution, backlog converts at current pace, no major new optionality
₹1,670
+28% from ₹1,305
⚠️ Bear Case
Rev CAGR: 10% (FY25→FY28E)
OPM%: 18–19% (margin compression)
PAT FY28E: ~₹255Cr
P/E multiple applied: 30x
Assumes: LNG cycle disappoints, export headwinds, keg ramp slower, working capital strain
₹840
-36% from ₹1,305
Plain English Investor Summary
Revenue, PAT & Operating Margin (FY2019–FY2025)
Annual P&L Trend [Screener]
Profitability Trends
ROCE, ROE & OPM% — 7 Year Trend [Computed from Screener]
Cash Flow Summary [Screener]
CFO (FY25)
₹122Cr
FY24: ₹122Cr | FY23: ₹177Cr
CFO/PAT: 0.54x ⚠️ Below 0.8x threshold
FCF (FY25)
₹-7Cr
FCF = CFO ₹122Cr − Capex ₹129Cr [Computed]
Capex investment year; FY26E positive
Net Cash (Dec 2025)
₹160Cr
Gross Debt: ₹0 | Cash+FD+MF: ₹160Cr
Net Debt-Free
Balance Sheet Highlights [Screener]
Item (₹ Cr)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025Dec 2025
Long-term Borrowings67.554.59.016.143.3~0
Cash & Equivalents201.98.861.79.223.5160
Net Debt / (Cash)(134.4)45.7(52.7)6.919.7(160)
Total Equity371.5502.3549.5649.1873.71,043
Net Fixed Assets102.0133.7164.5255.5359.4430
CWIP2.41.90.24.84.2
CWIP % of Gross Block2.3%1.4%0.1%1.8%1.2%Low — no stuck CWIP
Investments (non-op)25.1311.7248.9246.7267.2
Working Capital Trend
Debtor, Inventory & Creditor Days [Computed from Screener]
Quarterly Deep-Dive (Last 8 Quarters) [Screener]
QuarterRevenue (₹Cr)PAT (₹Cr)OPM%Rev YoYPAT YoYFlag
Jun 24296.452.623.7%
Sep 24306.649.520.8%+19.0%+7.0%
Dec 24333.658.420.7%+14.8%+20.2%
Mar 25369.465.522.0%+33.6%+48.6%
Jun 25339.661.122.4%+14.6%+16.1%
Sep 25358.260.821.7%+16.9%+22.9%
Dec 25 (Q3FY26)428.660.721.8%+28.5%+4.0%⚠️ US arb cost ₹8.5Cr one-time
TTM: Revenue ₹1,484Cr | PAT ₹244Cr | Adj PAT (ex-one-time) ₹~250Cr
Earnings Quality Panel
CFO/PAT ratio (3Y avg FY23–FY25): 0.61x⚠️ Below 0.8x — accruals-heavy growth
Accruals Ratio [(PAT-CFO)/Avg Assets]: ~5.2%⚠️ Borderline — watch receivables
Revenue recognition policy change✅ POCM used for long-cycle projects — appropriate & consistent
Auditor: B S R & Co. LLP (KPMG affiliate)✅ Big 4 affiliate — strong governance signal
Auditor tenure✅ Appointed post-IPO 2023 — fresh relationship
Qualifications / Emphasis of Matter✅ Clean audit opinion FY24 & FY25
[Sources: AR FY24, AR FY25, Screener data]
Business Model & Revenue Streams

INOX India is a made-to-order engineering manufacturer serving industrial gas companies (Air Liquide, Linde, Air Products), LNG infrastructure developers (Caribbean LNG, Island Power, IOCL, BPCL, HPCL), and scientific research institutions (ITER, ISRO, CERN). Revenue is project-based for large LNG terminals and cryo-scientific systems (lumpy, high-margin), and serial/repeat for industrial gas tanks and beverage kegs (steady, moderate-margin). The company operates on a Percentage of Completion Method (POCM) for long-cycle projects and spot recognition for standard products. [AR FY25]

Revenue mix (FY25): Industrial Gas ~61%, LNG ~17%, Cryo Scientific ~17%, Others (Kegs) ~5%. Geographic split: Domestic ~47%, Exports ~53% (growing fast — Q3FY26 exports 62%). Key customer concentration: Top 10 orders are ~60% of order book but no single customer exceeds 15%. [IP Q3FY26] [Rating Ind-Ra]

Pricing model: Cost-plus with back-to-back stainless steel procurement (raw material risk mitigated at order receipt). Contract terms typically 12–18 months for standard products, 24–36 months for large project work. Customer advances of ₹460Cr (Dec 2025) provide ~1 quarter revenue in pre-funding. [IP Q3FY26]

Value Chain Position
Raw SS Steel Suppliers
INOX: Cryogenic Equipment Mfg
Industrial Gas Cos / LNG Cos / Research Institutes
End Users

INOX sits at the OEM/component manufacturer layer. Key suppliers: domestic stainless steel mills (JSW, Jindal). Top customers include Air Liquide, Air Products, Linde (Industrial Gas); IOCL, HPCL, Caribbean LNG, Island Power (LNG); ITER, ISRO, CERN (Cryo-Scientific). Customer concentration: ~60% of order book from top 10 orders. [IP Q3FY26] [Rating CARE 2024]

Competitive Moat Analysis (5-Framework)
Cost AdvantagePARTIAL

India's lower manufacturing costs vs European and US peers. Stainless steel procured locally at 15-20% discount to Western sourcing. However, not a structural cost leader vs Chinese manufacturers. [Analyst inf.]

Switching CostsYES

High in cryo-scientific (ITER certification took 5+ years, institutional memory), moderate in LNG (project-specific qualifications). Industrial gas: moderate (approval process with gas companies, existing installed base). [IP Q3FY26]

Network EffectsNONE

No meaningful network effects. Revenue grows with manufacturing capacity and order wins, not network size. [Analyst inf.]

Intangible AssetsYES

Key moat: multi-geography certifications (ASME U&R, EN 13458/13530, ISO 3824, IATF 16949, IMO, PESO). 30+ years of cryogenic engineering know-how and 450+ engineer team. Each new certification takes 2-4 years — strong entry barrier for new entrants. [IP Q3FY26]

Efficient ScalePARTIAL

Domestic market: INOX's 60-70% share makes new domestic entry economically unattractive. Globally: market too large for efficient scale effects — INOX remains a mid-size player globally. [Rating CARE 2024]

Overall Moat RatingNARROW

INOX has a narrow but durable moat driven primarily by certifications, institutional relationships, and domain expertise. The 30-year learning curve in cryogenic welding and engineering is difficult to replicate. However, it is not a wide-moat business — pricing power is limited and Chinese competition is a real risk in standard products.

Segment Revenue (FY2023–9MFY26) [IP Q3FY25, IP Q3FY26]
Management & Governance
NameRoleBackgroundTenure
Mr. Pavan JainChairman (Promoter)Chemical Engg, IIT Delhi; 50+ yrs cryogenic industryFounder
Mr. Siddharth JainDirector (Promoter)Mech Engg, Univ Michigan; MBA INSEAD; 24+ yrs15+ years
Mr. Parag KulkarniExecutive DirectorMech Engg, Mumbai; MBA JBIMS; 50+ yrs experience25+ years
Mr. Deepak AcharyaCEOME Mech, IIT Roorkee; joined 1992; 35+ yrs ops33 years
Mr. Pavan LogarCFOCA & Company Secretary; joined 1993; 35+ yrs finance32 years
Mr. Tushar ZopeCTO (new)Petrochem Engg, MIT; 33+ yrs process plant expertiseSince 2024
Governance Metrics
Promoter holding75% — stable, no dilution
Promoter pledgeNil reported
Board independence50% independent directors
CEO remuneration / PAT~1.5% — within acceptable range
Promoter succession⚠️ Inheritance via late Devendra Kumar Jain's shares transmitted Feb 2026 — watch corporate structure
Industry Context
🟢 Tailwinds: Global LNG demand (+60% by 2040 Shell), India's green hydrogen mission, anti-dumping duties on Chinese cryogenic products, India PLI for specialty manufacturing, space sector privatization (ISRO expansion)
🔴 Headwinds: Chinese competition in standard tanks, US tariffs on Indian exports (though anti-dumping on Chinese creates net positive), stainless steel price volatility, execution risk in large project delivery
📊 TAM: Global cryogenic equipment market ~$25Bn; small-scale LNG ~$10Bn growing to $16Bn by 2028. INOX's current revenue ~$160Mn = ~0.6% global share. [IP Q3FY26] [PwC report cited therein]
Growth Triggers
⚡ Small-Scale LNG Infrastructure

Global small-scale LNG market: $10Bn (2023) → $16Bn (2028). INOX is executing Bahamas mega-terminal (world's largest shop-built vacuum-insulated LNG tanks). PNGRB estimates LNG trucks to grow from 50,000 in 2030 to 5,00,000 in 2040. MoPNG targets 1,000 LNG fuel stations across India. [IP Q3FY26]

HIGH ConvictionTimeline: FY26–FY30 | Impact: ₹300–500Cr incremental
🍺 Beverage Keg Division Scaling

Savli plant: 300,000 keg/yr capacity, only 50,000 produced in FY25. Heineken + AB InBev approved; Carlsberg pending. FSSC 22000 certified (first Asia). Target ₹300-350Cr FY26 from ₹200Cr FY25. At full utilization: ₹800Cr+ revenue potential from this segment alone. [Concall Q3FY26]

MEDIUM ConvictionTimeline: FY26–FY28 | Impact: ₹200–400Cr incremental
🚀 Liquid Hydrogen Storage & Transport

IEA projects hydrogen demand >6MTPA by 2030. INOX entered liquid H2 in 1999, supplied 4×311m³ LH2 tanks to Korea, 2,000L tank to New Zealand, DRDO submarine AIP systems. As green H2 scales, INOX's cryogenic expertise becomes critical infrastructure. India's National Green Hydrogen Mission targets 5 MTPA by 2030. [IP Q3FY26]

OPTIONALITYTimeline: FY27–FY32 | Impact: Potentially transformative
⚛️ Fusion Energy Cryogenic Infrastructure

ITER First Plasma expected 2035. 40+ fusion startups, $7Bn+ funding globally. INOX is the incumbent supplier to ITER — 4km jacketed piping, now additional VVTS repair order. India planning two new tokamak machines before its own DEMO in 2040s. Fusion cryogenic TAM: potentially multi-billion over 2030–2050. [IP Q3FY26]

OPTIONALITYTimeline: FY28–FY35 | Impact: Lottery ticket optionality
🔬 Cryo-Scientific: Medical & Semiconductor

India's first indigenous 1.5T MRI cryostat developed with SAMEER/MeitY, installed at AIIMS Delhi. Ultra-high purity ammonia ISO containers for semiconductor/solar manufacturing (7N grade, only domestic manufacturer). As India builds semiconductor capacity, INOX is the only qualified domestic supplier for these critical inputs. [Company desc.]

MEDIUM ConvictionTimeline: FY26–FY29 | Impact: ₹100–200Cr
🌊 Mini-LNG Terminals for Islands & Remote

Island nations pay 10x mainland electricity costs. Mini-LNG terminals (INOX has commissioned in Scotland, Antigua, Bahamas) provide clean, affordable energy. INOX is positioning as the global turnkey supplier for this niche. Each project: ₹50–200Cr+ revenue. Pipeline: strong RFQ activity from Caribbean, Pacific islands, Southeast Asia. [IP Q3FY26]

HIGH ConvictionTimeline: FY26–FY29 | Impact: ₹200–400Cr
Capacity & Utilization
Manufacturing Facilities
🏭 Kalol, Gujarat: 92,036 sq m (since 1992)
🏭 Kandla SEZ, Gujarat: 30,996 sq m (since 2007)
🏭 Silvassa, Gujarat: 7,000 sq m (since 2004)
🏭 Savli, Gujarat: New Cryo tank facility (FY25)
🌎 Brazil: Manufacturing & service (subsidiary)
🌎 Netherlands: Stock & sale facility
Capacity Additions
✅ Savli plant: ₹100Cr+ capex (FY24–FY25)
✅ Kegs: 300,000/yr installed capacity
📌 Q3FY26: Highest ever quarterly revenue (₹436Cr consolidated per IP) signals near-term utilization healthy
📌 Capex guidance: ₹80Cr each FY26 & FY27
[IP Q3FY26] [Rating Ind-Ra 2025]
Utilization Status
🟢 Industrial Gas: ~75–80% utilized
🟢 LNG: ~65–70% (scaling with Bahamas)
🟡 Kegs: ~17% (major headroom)
🟢 Cryo-Scientific: Order-driven, ~70%
Overall: Not near bottleneck, significant capacity for growth without major new capex
Financial Health Flags
CFO/PAT: 0.54x (3Y avg)
Below 0.8x threshold — accruals building due to POCM and rising WC; watch FY26
Debt: Near zero
D/E 0.05x, Net cash ₹160Cr (Dec'25). Capex funded from accruals — no financial stress
Receivable Days: 70 days
Rising from 54 days (FY23) — project billing lags; POCM contracts inflate. Monitor for >90 days
Interest Coverage: 35x+
Virtually no interest burden. EBIT/interest >35x FY25. No debt repayment pressure.
FCF: Negative FY25
FCF = ₹-7Cr (FY25) due to ₹129Cr Savli capex. Expected to normalize positive in FY26 as capex reduces
Order Book: ₹1,457Cr
1.1x FY25 revenue; provides 12-15 months visibility; 63% export backlog — strong quality
Current Multiples vs History [Computed | Screener]
MultipleCurrent3Y Avg (est.)5Y Avg (est.)Premium/Discount
P/E (TTM)52.4x~38x~30x+38% vs 3Y avg
P/E (FY26E)~44xRich but justified if 20%+ growth
EV/EBITDA40.8x~32x~25x+28% premium
EV/Sales8.9x~7x~6xModerate premium
P/FCFN/M (neg FCF)~60xDistorted by capex year
P/Book13.5x~12x~9xModest premium
[Note: INOX listed Dec 2023; historical averages estimated from IPO price of ~₹660 and trading range. Mkt cap ₹11,829Cr, EV ≈ Mkt cap + Debt - Cash ≈ ₹11,670Cr. EV/EBITDA = ₹11,670Cr/₹285Cr = 40.9x. All ratios computed.] [Computed]
PE Band Chart (Approximate — Post-IPO) [Computed | Analyst inference]
Price & PE Band Analysis (Dec 2023 – Apr 2026)
DCF Intrinsic Value Range [Analyst estimates — not investment advice | Medium confidence]
Bull DCF
Stage 1 Rev CAGR (Y1-3)25%
Stage 2 Rev CAGR (Y4-7)18%
Terminal growth rate6%
FCF Margin12%
WACC13%
Intrinsic Value₹2,200–2,500
Base DCF
Stage 1 Rev CAGR (Y1-3)18%
Stage 2 Rev CAGR (Y4-7)13%
Terminal growth rate5%
FCF Margin10%
WACC13%
Intrinsic Value₹1,400–1,600
Bear DCF
Stage 1 Rev CAGR (Y1-3)10%
Stage 2 Rev CAGR (Y4-7)8%
Terminal growth rate4%
FCF Margin7%
WACC14%
Intrinsic Value₹750–950
[WACC: 13–14% appropriate for Indian small-cap engineering company with export revenues. FCF = EBITDA × (1-tax) × (1-reinvestment rate). Terminal value using Gordon Growth Model. All assumptions above are analyst estimates.] [Analyst estimates — not investment advice]
Reverse DCF — What is the Market Pricing?

At the current market price of ₹1,305 (market cap ₹11,829Cr), with WACC of 13%, terminal growth of 5%, and FCF margin of 10%, the market is implying a revenue CAGR of approximately 20–22% over the next 5 years. INOX has delivered 18.6% revenue CAGR over the last 3 years, so this assumption is slightly above historical but not unreasonable given: (a) LNG backlog is scaling, (b) keg division adds incremental revenue, (c) export markets opening. The key risk: if growth drops to 12–15%, the fair value would be ₹900–1,100. [Analyst inference — not investment advice]

Margin of Safety Assessment & Entry Zones
Risk/Reward Analysis [Computed]
Current Price₹1,305
Base case DCF midpoint₹1,500
Bull case upside₹2,350 (+80%)
Bear case downside₹850 (-35%)
Risk/Reward Ratio~2.3x (Attractive)
Upside/Downside = 80%/35% = 2.3x. >2x = attractive entry. [Computed]
Price Zone Guide
🟢 Strong Buy Zone: Below ₹1,000
🟢 Buy Zone: ₹1,000 – ₹1,200
🟡 Hold/Accumulate: ₹1,200 – ₹1,500 (current)
🟡 Neutral/Reduce: ₹1,500 – ₹1,800
🔴 Trim: Above ₹1,800
Based on: Historical PE bands + DCF range + peer multiples. [Analyst inference]
Risk Register
HIGH Valuation Risk — 52x P/E Priced to Perfection

At 52x TTM P/E, the stock prices in ~20-22% earnings growth for 5+ years. Any earnings disappointment — one bad quarter, a project delay, or margin compression — could trigger a 20-30% de-rating. Q3FY26 PAT grew only 4% YoY (despite 28.5% revenue growth) due to US arbitration one-time cost, illustrating the earnings sensitivity. [IP Q3FY26]

Mitigant: Stock is already 36% below its 52W high — significant de-rating has partly occurred. Accumulation at current levels carries less valuation risk than 6 months ago.
HIGH Chinese Competition in Standard Cryogenic Products

Chinese manufacturers (CIMC, Cryeng) are aggressively pricing standard cryogenic tanks in Asia, Middle East, and Africa. INOX's export markets outside the US and EU are vulnerable. Anti-dumping duties help in US/EU, but other markets remain contested. Price-based competition could compress INOX's margins on standard products. [Rating CARE 2024] [Analyst inf.]

Mitigant: INOX is moving up the value chain toward project-based, certified, and high-spec products where Chinese competition is absent (ITER, ASME-stamped, IATF 16949 certified). Strategy is correct but takes time.
HIGH Large Project Execution Risk (Bahamas, ITER Repair)

The Bahamas mini-LNG terminal (₹200Cr+) is the largest project in company history, featuring 10 × 1,500m³ shop-built tanks — a new product size with no precedent. Delays, quality issues, or cost overruns could damage both revenue recognition and reputation. The US arbitration case (₹8.5Cr penalty in Q3FY26) shows overseas execution risk is real. [IP Q3FY26] [Concall Q3FY26]

Mitigant: INOX has insurance coverage of ₹92Cr against third-party claims. The company has 30 years of engineering know-how and has delivered projects of comparable complexity (ITER, ISRO). Management track record provides moderate comfort.
MEDIUM Working Capital Deterioration

Receivable days have risen from 36 days (FY22) to 70 days (FY25). Contract assets (net of liabilities) jumped to ₹379Cr (Dec 2025) from ₹126Cr (Mar 2025) — driven by POCM on long-cycle projects like Bahamas, WUST, Hyundai. If projects are delayed or cancelled, a significant write-down could hit the balance sheet. [IP Q3FY26]

Mitigant: Customer advances of ₹460Cr provide substantial pre-funding. Projects underlying contract assets are from reputable global counterparties. D/E remains near zero so there's no interest pressure.
MEDIUM US Tariff and Trade Policy Uncertainty

The US accounts for ~13% of INOX's revenue (primarily disposable cylinders). Any escalation in US import tariffs on Indian manufactured goods could directly impact this segment. The company has flagged tariff uncertainty but believes demand for its specialized cylinders is inelastic as it is among few qualified suppliers. [Rating Ind-Ra 2025]

Mitigant: Anti-dumping duties on Chinese cryogenic products create a net positive even with Indian tariff increases. INOX is diversifying into European and other markets. US revenue concentration is not extreme at 13%.
MEDIUM Key Person & Succession Risk

The company's success is closely tied to founder Chairman Pavan Jain (50+ years experience) and CEO Deepak Acharya (33 years). The recent share transmission from late Devendra Kumar Jain (Feb 2026) adds promoter family complexity. Siddharth Jain (son, Director) is being developed as the next generation leader but is 24 years into a learning curve. [Share transmission doc 2026]

Mitigant: Deep management bench (CEO, CFO, CTO, marketing heads all have 25-35 year tenures). Professional management layer is well established. Siddharth Jain's INSEAD background suggests strong succession preparation.
LOW Raw Material Price Risk (Stainless Steel)

Stainless steel is the primary raw material (~40-45% of revenue). SS prices can be volatile. However, INOX's back-to-back procurement policy (buys SS when order received) effectively hedges this risk at the project level. [Rating CARE 2024]

Mitigant: Back-to-back procurement is a structural mitigant. SS price movements on multi-month order-to-delivery cycles are largely contained. Company has historically maintained OPM in 20-23% range through price cycles.
LOW Currency Fluctuation Risk

With 60%+ revenues in exports and transactions in USD, EUR, and other currencies, INOX has significant forex exposure. No formal hedging policy — some natural hedging through import of components. INR appreciation would hurt export realizations. [Rating CARE 2024]

Mitigant: Natural hedge through import of equipment. Long contract cycles allow some timing flexibility. Historical INR depreciation trend is a structural positive for INOX's export economics.
Risk Heat Map
Low Impact
Med Impact
High Impact
High Prob
Working Capital
Valuation De-rate
Chinese Comptn.
Med Prob
Forex Risk
US Tariffs
Project Execution
Low Prob
Steel Price
Key Person
LNG Demand Shock
What the Market May Be Ignoring

Too Optimistic: The market may be giving INOX full credit for LNG and hydrogen optionality before it has materially contributed to revenue. Hydrogen, in particular, is unlikely to be a significant revenue driver before FY28-FY30. The 52x P/E implies the market believes all optionalities will materialize on schedule, with no execution slip.

Too Pessimistic: The stock is 36% below its 52W high — partly reflecting a broad small-cap de-rating in India (Q4 FY25–Q1 FY26) and partly the Q3FY26 PAT miss (due to one-time US arbitration cost). The market may be underestimating: (1) the beverage keg division's near-term revenue ramp (₹300Cr+ in FY26E from a standing start), (2) the durable quality of INOX's 30%+ ROCE over 6+ years, and (3) the compounding power of consistent 18-20% revenue growth at these return levels over a decade. [Analyst inference]

🟢 CLEAN — No Material Red Flags
Big 4 auditor (KPMG affiliate), debt-free balance sheet, transparent POCM accounting, no promoter pledge. One amber flag: CFO/PAT ratio below 0.8x due to working capital build in long-cycle projects. [AR FY25, AR FY24, Rating reports]
Beneish M-Score Analysis [Computed from Screener data | Medium confidence]
VariableFormulaFY25 ValueThresholdFlag
DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index)(Rec/Sales)FY25 ÷ (Rec/Sales)FY241.19>1.465 = manipulate✅ CLEAN
GMI (Gross Margin Index)GM%FY24 ÷ GM%FY250.97>1.193 = risk✅ CLEAN
AQI (Asset Quality Index)(1-Curr+FA)/TA FY25 ÷ prior1.08>1.254 = risk✅ CLEAN
SGI (Sales Growth Index)Sales FY25 ÷ Sales FY241.15>1.607 = risk✅ CLEAN
DEPI (Depreciation Index)Dep rate FY24 ÷ Dep rate FY250.88>1.077 = risk✅ CLEAN
SGAI (SG&A Index)SGA/Sales FY25 ÷ prior1.03>1.189 = risk✅ CLEAN
LVGI (Leverage Index)Debt/TA FY25 ÷ prior1.16>1.0 = slight risk⚠️ AMBER (minor debt increase)
TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets)(NI-CFO) ÷ Avg TA0.062>0.031 = risk⚠️ AMBER (accruals elevated)
M-Score = -1.95 (estimated) — Below -1.78 threshold. ✅ Unlikely Manipulator. The two amber flags (LVGI, TATA) are explained by legitimate business reasons: minor debt for Savli expansion, and accruals from POCM accounting on long-cycle export projects. [Computed from Screener — medium confidence]
Altman Z-Score [Computed | Screener]
X1 = Working Capital/TA = 516/1,654 = 0.312
X2 = Retained Earnings/TA = 855/1,654 = 0.517
X3 = EBIT/TA = 307/1,654 = 0.186
X4 = Mkt Cap/Total Liabilities = 11829/780 = 15.17
X5 = Sales/TA = 1306/1654 = 0.790
Z = 1.2×0.312 + 1.4×0.517 + 3.3×0.186 + 0.6×15.17 + 1.0×0.790
Z = 0.374 + 0.724 + 0.614 + 9.102 + 0.790
Z = 11.60
SAFE
Z > 2.99 = Safe Zone
Extremely strong Z-Score driven by debt-free balance sheet relative to market cap. No financial distress risk.
CFO vs PAT Divergence [Screener]
3Y Average CFO/PAT (FY23-FY25): ₹141Cr / ₹192Cr = 0.73x ⚠️ Below 0.8x
The gap between CFO and PAT is explained by: (1) Rising contract assets due to POCM on large long-cycle exports (Bahamas, WUST, etc.), (2) Growing inventory build for higher order book. This is NOT indicative of earnings manipulation — it reflects the normal working capital dynamics of a growing project-based business. Comparable project businesses (L&T, Thermax) show similar patterns during backlog buildout phases. [IP Q3FY26] [AR FY25] [Analyst inference]
Revenue vs Receivables Growth Check
YearRevenue Growth YoYReceivables Growth YoYFlag
FY22+32%-31%✅ CLEAN — receivables fell as revenue rose
FY23+23%+83%⚠️ Watch — large jump but early scaling phase
FY24+17%+22%✅ Marginal excess — within normal range
FY25+15%+45%⚠️ Watch — receivables growing faster; POCM + export mix explains
Related Party Transactions (RPT) Scan [AR FY24, AR FY25]

Key RPTs identified from Annual Reports:

PartyNatureValue (FY25)% of RevenueAssessment
INOX Air Products LtdSales of goods/services~₹15-20Cr est.~1.3%✅ Arm's length, group company
Inoxcva Europe B.V.Sales (subsidiary)Consolidated out✅ Wholly owned sub
Inoxcva Comercio (Brazil)Inter-company (subsidiary)Consolidated out✅ Wholly owned sub
Director remunerationSalary + commission~₹8-10Cr est.~0.7%✅ Within normal range (<1% of PAT)
Overall RPT Risk: LOW — No loans to promoter entities, no non-arm's-length sales of significant size, no advisory fees to promoter family identified. INOX Air Products is a group company but transactions appear normal commercial dealings. [Analyst inference — data not fully available]
Forensics Scorecard
CheckMetricFindingStatus
Beneish M-Score-1.95 (est.)Below -1.78 threshold✅ CLEAN
Altman Z-Score11.60Far above 2.99 safe zone✅ CLEAN
CFO/PAT Ratio0.73x (3Y avg)Below 0.8x but explainable⚠️ AMBER
Accruals Ratio~5.2%Borderline, project-mix driven⚠️ AMBER
Receivables vs RevenueFY25: Rec +45% vs Rev +15%Elevated; POCM explains⚠️ AMBER
CWIP AnalysisCWIP 1.2% of gross blockLow — no stuck CWIP✅ CLEAN
Auditor QualityB S R & Co. LLP (KPMG)Big 4 affiliate, clean opinion✅ CLEAN
RPT RiskLow materiality, arm's lengthNo red flags identified✅ CLEAN
Contingent Liabilities~₹92Cr insurance + tax disputes<15% of net worth✅ CLEAN
Promoter PledgeNilNo pledge reported✅ CLEAN
Overall Forensic Risk Rating: LOW — INOX India passes all major forensic checks. The amber flags on CFO/PAT and receivables are business-cycle related, not manipulation signals.
"We have achieved highest ever quarterly revenue of ₹436 crore, highest ever EBITDA of ₹102 crore, and highest ever export revenue of ₹271 crore in Q3FY26. The adjusted EBITDA margin is 23.5% — without the one-time US arbitration expense — which is actually an improvement over Q3FY25."
— Management (paraphrased), Concall Q3FY26, February 2026 [Concall Q3FY26]
Thematic Commentary [Concall Q3FY26 | IP Q3FY26]
1. Record Quarter Despite One-Time Hit

Q3FY26 delivered highest-ever revenue (₹436Cr), EBITDA (₹102Cr adj.), and export revenue (₹271Cr). The PAT of ₹62Cr (reported) was impacted by a US arbitration penalty of ₹8.5Cr. Adjusted PAT: ₹68Cr — a 32.3% YoY improvement. Management repeatedly emphasized the underlying strength of the business.

Read: Operationally strong. The quality of earnings is improving. The one-time US arbitration penalty should not recur but reflects project execution risk in overseas complex contracts.
2. Order Backlog — Healthy Despite Revenue Record

Order backlog at Dec 2025: ₹1,457Cr (vs ₹1,485Cr at Sep 2025). Management explained the slight dip is because Q3 revenue grew 27% YoY — the intake kept pace but execution was also faster. If revenue growth stays at 17%, backlog would be ₹1,486Cr — management's preferred framing. Average quarterly order receipt: ₹394Cr in 9MFY26 vs ₹383Cr in FY25 — 2.9% growth in order intake.

Read: Neutral. Order book is stable but not accelerating. The company needs backlog to grow from here to sustain 20%+ revenue growth into FY27-28.
3. Export Revenue — Structural Shift Underway

Export revenue reached ₹271Cr in Q3FY26 (62% of total) — a record. Export order backlog is 63% of total backlog. Key growth areas: US space company orders (1,000m³ and 1,500m³ tanks), Heineken keg approvals, additional ITER order, Molson Coors approval. Management sees exports as the primary growth driver for the next 3–5 years.

Read: Bullish. The export share is a genuine structural improvement, not a one-quarter anomaly. Each export win validates INOX's capability to compete globally.
4. Capex — Investment Phase Largely Complete

The Savli plant expansion (cryo tanks + keg manufacturing) has been commissioned. Capex in FY26 and FY27 is expected at ₹80Cr each year — significantly lower than FY25's ~₹129Cr. This means FCF should turn strongly positive in FY26. Additional capex for leased LNG trailers (₹40Cr) is an asset-light model — cost recovered through lease rentals.

Read: Bullish for FCF. The company is transitioning from investment phase to harvest phase. FY26 FCF likely ₹40-70Cr (vs -₹7Cr FY25).
5. LNG Segment — Gaining Share Toward 25%

LNG segment was 25% of Q3FY26 revenue, up from 15% in Q3FY25. The Bahamas project (largest ever), continued trailer business, and India's PNGRB mandate for LNG trucking (50,000 to 500,000 trucks by 2040) provide the demand backdrop. The keg division contributed to Others segment but is not counted in LNG.

Read: Bullish. LNG at 25% of revenue with India LNG fueling still nascent implies significant multi-year growth runway. INOX supplies all 4 major Indian truck OEMs.
6. Balance Sheet — Fortress Position

Net cash ₹160Cr (Dec 2025), zero long-term debt, ROCE 35%, ROE 23%. Management flagged increase in contract assets (₹379Cr) is due to POCM on Bahamas, WUST, Hyundai, Edge projects — invoicing will happen at dispatch. Customer advances stable at ₹460Cr. Balance sheet can support aggressive growth without any equity dilution.

Read: Bullish. The balance sheet quality is elite for an Indian manufacturing company of this size. Management has consistently chosen balance sheet conservatism over financial leverage.
Key Q&A Highlights [Concall Q3FY26 — Feb 2026]
Q: Why did PAT grow only 4% despite 28.5% revenue growth?
A: The ₹8.5Cr US arbitration cost impacted reported PAT. Adjusted PAT grew 32.3% YoY. Additionally, employee costs are higher due to Savli plant commissioning (headcount ramp) and incremental effect. Excluding one-time items, EBITDA margin was 23.5% vs 22.3% in Q3FY25 — actual improvement.
Q: How should we think about the LNG order backlog trajectory?
A: LNG backlog is ₹446Cr (31% of total). Management expects the LNG segment to maintain 25%+ of revenue. The Bahamas order (₹200Cr+) is being executed. New orders from US space company (1,000m³ tanks), Heineken approval for kegs, and India LNG fueling growth provide confidence in the order pipeline.
Q: What's the status of the beverage keg business?
A: Q3FY26 saw highest ever quarterly liquid cylinder order booking (1,700+ units). Heineken has given first order; Molson Coors approval received. Carlsberg audit pending. Revenue from kegs expected ₹300-350Cr in FY26. Capacity: 300,000 kegs/year, currently running at ~50,000. Significant headroom.
Q: How is the working capital situation? Contract assets jumped significantly.
A: Contract assets rose to ₹379Cr from ₹126Cr in March 2025 due to POCM recognition on Bahamas, WUST, Hyundai, High View, Edge projects — all have higher lead times and invoicing happens at dispatch. Pending project orders rose to ₹1,093Cr in Dec 2025. Customer advances of ₹460Cr provide substantial pre-funding. No concern on collections.
Q: What is the outlook for margins in FY26 and FY27?
A: Management expects EBITDA margins to sustain in the 21-24% range. Material cost as % of revenue is well controlled at ~76.5% in Q3FY26 vs 77.7% in Q3FY25. As Savli scales and keg volumes increase, margins should expand modestly. High-margin cryo-scientific orders (ITER Cryostat Thermal Shield) will contribute positively.
Q: What's the ITER relationship going forward?
A: Additional order received for installation work of Cryo & Warm line AND refurbishment of Lower Cryostat Thermal Shield. First Plasma expected 2035, requiring continued cryogenic infrastructure ramp-up. INOX is effectively the designated supplier for ITER's Indian cryogenic requirements and is well-positioned for follow-on orders from DEMO reactors globally.
Hidden Signals & Non-Obvious Observations [Analyst inference]
  1. The contract asset build is a leading indicator of near-term revenue recognition: ₹379Cr in contract assets representing revenues already recognized but not yet invoiced means a significant portion of FY26H2 and FY27 revenue is effectively "banked" — these aren't speculative backlog but accrued revenues from active projects. This is more bullish than the order book number alone suggests.
  2. Management avoided giving specific keg targets despite analyst pressure: They repeated "₹300-350Cr FY26" but deflected questions on FY27 keg targets. This may signal that keg ramp is slower than hoped — or simply that they prefer conservative guidance.
  3. The US arbitration case signals execution complexity in overseas contracts: While management framed this as "procedural standard cost," a ₹8.5Cr penalty on a US subsidiary case is meaningful. Watch for any further overseas legal developments — this is the first signal that international project execution has risk.
  4. Tone was notably confident vs Q2FY26: Language around order pipeline, beverage customer approvals, and cryo-scientific wins was more specific and numerous than previous quarters. Management seems to have high visibility on near-term order flow.
  5. Export revenue mix (62%) is now at record high — but order intake mix (64% export) suggests this will sustain: The business is genuinely globalizing, not just executing legacy domestic contracts. This has structural implications for valuation premium.
Management Guidance Tracker
MetricGuidance GivenLatest ActualStatus
Revenue Growth FY26~15-20% YoY [Q1FY26 concall]9MFY26 +20% YoY ✅ON TRACK
EBITDA Margin21-24% sustainedQ3FY26 adj: 23.5% ✅ON TRACK
Keg Revenue FY26₹300-350Cr₹200Cr FY25; FY26 in progressWATCH
LNG Segment Share25%+ of revenueQ3FY26: 25% ✅ON TRACK
Capex FY26 & FY27₹80Cr each year9MFY26 capex ~₹43Cr (on pace)ON TRACK
Order BacklogGrowing / sustaining₹1,457Cr Dec'25 vs ₹1,341Cr Dec'24ON TRACK
Export Revenue ShareIncreasing (no specific target)62% in Q3FY26 vs 50% Q3FY25EXCEEDING
Net Debt Free StatusMaintain net cash positiveNet cash ₹160Cr Dec'25ON TRACK
Capital Allocation Overview (FY20–FY25) [Computed | Screener]
Capital Deployed (5-Year Aggregate, FY21–FY25)
Key Observations [Computed]
  • Total CFO generated FY21-FY25: ₹749Cr
  • Total Capex FY21-FY25: ~₹305Cr (41% of CFO)
  • Total Dividends FY21-FY25: ~₹218Cr (29% of CFO)
  • Cash accumulated: ~₹226Cr (net)
  • No acquisitions, no buybacks to date
  • All capex funded from internal accruals — no equity dilution or debt
Management philosophy: Invest in manufacturing capacity → generate cash → return to shareholders → repeat. Simple, disciplined, effective. [Analyst inference]
ROCE DuPont Decomposition [Computed | Screener]
ROCE = EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover — 7-Year Trend

ROCE improvement from 31% (FY21) to 33-40% (FY22-FY24) was driven primarily by asset turnover improvement (revenue growing faster than asset base) as the company sweated its existing facilities. FY25 ROCE dipped to 33.5% as the Savli plant added significant fixed assets (Net Block +40% to ₹359Cr) before fully ramping. This is a temporary compression — as Savli capacity utilizes, ROCE should return to 35-40%. [Analyst inference | Computed]

Reinvestment Rate & ROIIC [Computed | Medium confidence]
YearNOPAT (₹Cr)Capex (₹Cr)Depreciation (₹Cr)ΔNWC (₹Cr)Reinvestment (₹Cr)ROIIC
FY23~165~4314~+50~79
FY24~212~10918~+20~111~42% 🟢
FY25~247~12925~+40~144~25% 🟢
ROIIC = ΔNOPAT(yr) / Reinvestment(prior yr). Formula: Reinvestment = Capex − Dep + ΔNWC. ROIIC >20% = excellent capital allocator. [Computed — medium confidence]
Capex vs Depreciation Trend [Computed | Screener]
FCF Conversion History [Computed | Screener]
YearRevenueEBITDACapex (est.)FCFFCF/Rev%FCF/PAT%Flag
FY21₹594Cr₹135Cr₹4Cr₹227Cr38%236%✅ Exceptional
FY22₹783Cr₹168Cr₹44Cr₹53Cr7%41%✅ Healthy
FY23₹966Cr₹205Cr₹45Cr₹132Cr14%85%✅ Healthy
FY24₹1,133Cr₹252Cr₹109Cr₹13Cr1%7%⚠️ Capex-heavy
FY25₹1,306Cr₹285Cr₹129Cr-₹7Cr-0.5%-3%⚠️ Investment year
FY26E₹1,540Cr₹330Cr₹80Cr~₹65Cr~4%~25%✅ Recovering
Dividend History [Screener]
YearDPS (₹)Dividend Paid (₹Cr)Payout RatioComments
FY22₹1.5/share₹13.6Cr10%Post bonus issue payout
FY23₹11.5/share₹104.4Cr67%Special dividend (high payout year)
FY24₹11/share₹99.8Cr51%High payout; IPO year
FY25₹2/share₹18.2Cr8%Reduced payout; capex investment phase
Dividend policy is inconsistent — company paid large dividends in FY23-FY24 (IPO year optics?), then cut sharply in FY25 for capex. This is not a reliable income stock. [Analyst inference]
Capital Allocation Scorecard
DimensionScoreRationale
Return Quality (ROCE vs WACC)⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ROCE 33-40% >> WACC ~13%. Exceptional value creation.
Capital Discipline (FCF)⭐⭐⭐FCF positive except FY25 investment year. CFO/PAT needs improvement.
Growth Reinvestment (ROIIC)⭐⭐⭐⭐ROIIC 25-42% — investments generating excellent incremental returns.
Shareholder Friendliness⭐⭐⭐Dividends inconsistent; no buybacks. But no dilution either.
Balance Sheet Stewardship⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Zero LT debt, net cash, internally funded capex. Exemplary.
Overall Capital Allocation Grade
B+
Excellent return quality and balance sheet discipline. Dividend inconsistency and below-0.8 CFO/PAT prevent a full A grade.
Shareholding Pattern — 9 Quarters [BSE/NSE filings]
Promoter Analysis
Current Promoter Holding75.00%
IPO (Dec 2023) Promoter %75.00%
Change since IPO✅ Zero dilution — highly positive
Promoter Pledge✅ Nil — no pledge
Recent Promoter Activity✅ No open market sales; estate transmission Feb 2026
Feb 2026: 53,91,300 shares (5.94%) transmitted from Late Shri Devendra Kumar Jain to Mr. Siddharth Jain and Mrs. Ishita Jain jointly — a within-promoter group estate transfer, no external dilution. [Share transmission BSE filing Feb 2026]
Post-Transmission Promoter Structure (Feb 2026)
Mr. Siddharth Jain (total)37.27%
Mrs. Ishita Jain (jointly)4.20%
Other promoter entities~33.53%
Total Promoter + Group75.00%
Siddharth Jain now holds 37.27% directly — consolidating control as next-generation leader. This is a governance positive, not a concern. [BSE filing Feb 2026]
Institutional Ownership Intelligence
FII Trend (Dec 2023 → Dec 2025)
Dec 2023: 4.65% → Dec 2025: 7.14%
▲ Consistent increase (+2.49% in 2 years)
FII buying has been steady and consistent across all 9 quarters. This is genuine institutional confidence, not speculative flow. As INOX's export revenues globalize, international investor recognition is increasing. [BSE filings]
DII Trend (Dec 2023 → Dec 2025)
Dec 2023: 6.48% → Dec 2025: 7.27%
▲ Moderate increase (+0.79%)
DII ownership has been relatively stable with slight upward trend. Mutual funds likely building positions on dips. Low free float (25%) limits DII accumulation pace. [BSE filings]
Ownership Concentration & Float Analysis
Float Analysis
Total shares: 9,07,63,500
Free float: 25% = ~2.27 Cr shares
At ₹1,305: Free float market cap = ₹2,961Cr
3M ADTV (Dec 2025): 72,378 shares = ₹9.4Cr/day
Liquidity: Moderate — large buy programs take 2-4 months
Concentration Risk
🟢 Promoter 75% — stable, no dilution risk
🟡 Low float (25%) = high volatility potential
🟢 FII 7.14% — distributed, no single >5% holder known
🟢 DII 7.27% — mutual funds, less concentrated
🟡 Public 10.57% — declining (FII/DII absorbing)
Overall Ownership Risk
LOW
No pledge, stable promoter, consistent institutional buying, no single large external holder
Events Feed — Reverse Chronological (Through April 2026)
February 18, 2026
Promoter Share Transmission: Late D.K. Jain's 5.94% transferred to Siddharth Jain
53,91,300 equity shares held by the late Shri Devendra Kumar Jain transmitted to Mr. Siddharth Jain and Mrs. Ishita Jain. Siddharth Jain's direct holding now 37.27%, Ishita Jain at 4.20%. Total promoter holding unchanged at 75%. This is an estate transfer within promoter group — no external impact on free float. [BSE Filing Feb 2026]
Corporate Action
February 12-13, 2026
Q3FY26 Results & Concall — Highest Quarterly Revenue ₹436Cr, Export ₹271Cr
Adj. Revenue ₹436Cr (+27.4% YoY), Adj. EBITDA ₹102Cr (+34.2% YoY), Adj. PAT ₹68Cr (+32.3% YoY). Reported PAT ₹62Cr due to ₹8.5Cr US arbitration one-time penalty. Highlights: highest liquid cylinder order booking (1,700+ units), additional ITER Cryostat order, first Heineken order, Molson Coors approval. [IP Q3FY26] [Concall Q3FY26]
Financial impact: Adj. PAT ₹68Cr; reported ₹62Cr. Order book ₹1,457Cr stable.
Q3 Result
Q3FY26 (Oct-Dec 2025)
Additional Order from ITER for Cryo & Warm Line Installation + Lower Cryostat Thermal Shield Refurbishment
INOX received another significant order from ITER Organization (France) for installation work of cryo and warm lines, and refurbishment of Lower Cryostat Thermal Shield. This is in addition to the existing Cryostat Thermal Shield repair order announced earlier. Reinforces INOX's position as preferred cryogenic partner for the world's largest fusion research project. [IP Q3FY26]
Financial impact: Est. ₹20-50Cr; adds to CSD backlog. Multi-year relationship deepening.
Order Win
Q3FY26 (Oct-Dec 2025)
First Order from Heineken + Approval from Molson Coors (Second Largest US Brewery)
INOX received its first commercial order from Heineken for stainless steel kegs from the Savli plant. Additionally, Molson Coors (one of the world's largest breweries) gave formal approval — opening a significant pipeline from the US market. FSSC 22000 certification was the key qualifier for both. [IP Q3FY26]
Financial impact: Near-term ₹20-50Cr; long-term potential ₹200-300Cr+ from these two clients alone.
Order Win
Q3FY26 (Oct-Dec 2025)
Additional Order from US Space Company for Large 1,000m³ Tanks
INOX received a follow-on/additional order from a US space company (same or different from prior 1,500m³ order) for large cryogenic tanks of 1,000m³ size. US space sector is a growing market for industrial gas storage for rocket propellants. [IP Q3FY26]
Financial impact: Estimated ₹30-80Cr; high-margin export order.
Order Win
September 25, 2025
India Ratings Affirms IND AA-/Positive — Outlook Upgrade Reflecting Growth Momentum
India Ratings reaffirmed INOX India's bank facilities at IND AA-/Positive (upgraded from Stable in Jul 2024), citing: steady revenue and profitability growth, healthy order book (₹1.12x revenue), increasing international footprint, robust ROCE, and adequate liquidity (₹284Cr cash at Jun 2025). Impact of US tariffs assessed as manageable (13% US revenues). WACC benefit: Positive outlook may lead to upgrade to IND AA over 12-18 months. [Rating Ind-Ra Sep 2025]
Implication: Potential borrowing cost reduction of 15-25bps on upgrade. Institutional investor confidence signal.
Rating Action
November 2025
Q2FY26 Results: Revenue ₹358Cr (+16.9% YoY), PAT ₹61Cr (+22.9% YoY)
Consistent performance with LNG segment at 25% of revenue. One-time income of ₹2Cr from US subsidiary settlement. Order backlog ₹1,485Cr — record high. Export revenue 57% of total. [Screener | Analyst inf.]
Q2 Result
Rating & Credit Actions Summary
DateAgencyPreviousNewKey Rationale
Sep 2025India Ratings (Ind-Ra)IND AA-/StableIND AA-/PositiveSteady growth, healthy order book, increasing exports, robust ROCE
Jul 2024India Ratings (Ind-Ra)IND AA-/StableIND AA-/PositiveStrong business momentum post-IPO, order book quality
Jul 2024CARE RatingsCARE AA-/StableCARE AA-/StableReaffirmed; limits enhanced to ₹835Cr from ₹630Cr
Aug 2023India RatingsIND AA-/StableIND AA-/StablePre-IPO reaffirmation
Pending Catalysts Tracker
CatalystExpected TimelineImpactStatus
Q4FY26 Results (Full Year)May 2026HIGHFull year revenue/PAT visibility; keg ramp update
Carlsberg Audit & Potential ApprovalQ1FY27 (est.)MEDIUMPending — would add a major global brewer to keg clients
Bahamas LNG Terminal Dispatch / Revenue RecognitionFY26-FY27HIGHCritical for contract asset conversion to invoiced revenue
India Ratings Upgrade to IND AA12-18 monthsMEDIUMPositive Outlook in place; upgrade likely on sustained performance
Savli Keg Capacity Scale-up (>100,000 units/yr)H1FY27MEDIUMRevenue inflection point for keg division
India LNG Truck OEM Volume Ramp (PNGRB mandate)FY26-FY28HIGHStructural demand driver; INOX supplies all 4 OEMs
Document Log (Inputs Used for This Dashboard)
DocumentDateTypeKey Takeaway
Inox_India.xlsxMar 2025Screener.in ExportCore financial data FY2014-FY2025 + quarterly data through Dec 2025
Inox_india_AR_FY_24.pdfFY2024Annual ReportBalance sheet, POCM policy, auditor info, RPT details
Inox_india_AR_FY_25.pdfFY2025Annual ReportSavli capex, keg division launch, segment reporting
Inox_india_CC_merged.pdfAug24-Feb26Concall TranscriptsManagement commentary, guidance, Q&A across 5 quarters
Inox_india_IP_merged.pdfQ3FY25-Q3FY26Investor PresentationsSegment data, order book, balance sheet, growth strategy
Inox_india_rating_merged.pdfJul24-Sep25Credit Rating ReportsCARE AA- & Ind-Ra AA- with Positive outlook; key risk drivers
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